Bruno Koch’s 2013 International Market Overview & Forecast

facts Bruno Kochs 2013 International Market Overview & ForecastBruno Koch. Does that name ring a bell? Well, it should, especially when you claim to be into e-invoicing and all that. Bruno is a Swiss market analyst and researcher and he has been actively dealing with e-invoicing for the last 16 years. In other words, someone to be taken seriously. A few days ago Bruno posted a discussion in our LinkedIn group about his latest International Market Overview & Forecast. Although we have great respect for his work and his Swiss precision, we can’t help but wonder on what actual facts he bases his findings. Or are they guesstimates? What do you think? See for yourself in this brief summary (Europe only).

Brief summary of European Market Overview & Forecast

The European market penetration in the B2B/B2G/G2B segment probably reaches 20% and in the B2C segment approximately 13%.
The market development is very positive, but differs greatly in various market segments. The exponential growth of the last few years tends to become rather linear. This has various reasons. On the one hand it becomes increasingly difficult with the already respectable basis volume of electronic invoices to continue with exponential growth rates. On the other hand the growth in volume-intensive industries (retail, telecom, energy and in Switzerland health) develop below average (some first signs of saturation). Some Nordic countries dropped as drivers for the European growth, because they already reached a respectable market penetration.
The direct exchanged volume of E-Invoices (B2B/B2G/G2B) might exceed the volume of the one exchanged via E-Invoing networks in 2013. This is mainly caused by a statistical effect. Germany has implemented the EU directive in 2011. Many PDF invoices are exchanged in this large country. Prior to mid-2011, the unsigned PDFs were not considered in my statistics as they were not tax compliant. A proportion of it became now tax compliant and part of my statistic.
The number of E-Invoicing network operator is growing just moderate and could reach soon a peak of close to 600. I see just a higher number, if larger countries would soon declare E-Invoicing as mandatory.
The turnover of the network operators for the transaction-based services are likely to rise rapidly for several more years. Nevertheless, the metric of turnover/e-invoice erodes every year probably around 10%. Most providers are likely to compensate this by economies of scale and added value services.
The profitability of the individual network operators varies greatly. The operator community (today 550) is expected to accumulate still a minor loss, although many of them are quite profitable. The competition becomes harder. Many operators becoming profitable use their margin for increased sales and marketing activities with the aim to increase the market share.

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